Comparing the models
Three models, three ways of measuring team strength. When they agree, the forecast is more trustworthy; when they disagree, it's worth a closer look.
- Market – team strength learned from bookmakers' odds
- Elo – team strength learned from results
- Poisson – attack and defence learned from scores
Chances by model
| Team | Market | Elo | Poisson | Spread (max − min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2 pp |
| Botafogo | 8% | 5% | 6% | 3 pp |
| Vasco | 5% | 12% | 11% | 7 pp |
| Vitória | 26% | 19% | 22% | 7 pp |
| Grêmio | 53% | 45% | 44% | 9 pp |
| Mirassol | 28% | 29% | 25% | 3 pp |
| Corinthians | 27% | 40% | 40% | 13 pp |
| Internacional | 48% | 48% | 48% | 0 pp |
Next games
| Market Home / Draw / Away | Elo Home / Draw / Away | Poisson Home / Draw / Away | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov, 20:00 | Bragantino ×Santos | 48% / 27% / 25% | 47% / 28% / 24% | 46% / 26% / 28% |
| 03 Nov, 19:30 | Chapecoense ×Mirassol | 29% / 28% / 43% | 31% / 30% / 39% | 29% / 25% / 47% |
| 03 Nov, 21:30 | Internacional ×Coritiba | 58% / 24% / 18% | 53% / 27% / 20% | 54% / 24% / 22% |
| 04 Nov, 19:30 | Athletico-PR ×Vasco | 41% / 29% / 30% | 55% / 26% / 19% | 56% / 23% / 21% |
| 04 Nov, 19:30 | Flamengo ×Grêmio | 77% / 15% / 8% | 78% / 15% / 8% | 72% / 18% / 11% |
| 04 Nov, 21:30 | Botafogo ×Atlético-MG | 46% / 28% / 26% | 48% / 28% / 24% | 48% / 26% / 26% |
| 04 Nov, 21:30 | São Paulo ×Corinthians | 44% / 28% / 28% | 52% / 27% / 21% | 47% / 28% / 26% |
| 05 Nov, 19:30 | Palmeiras ×Remo | 75% / 16% / 9% | 81% / 12% / 6% | 73% / 18% / 9% |
| 05 Nov, 21:30 | Cruzeiro ×Bahia | 51% / 26% / 22% | 54% / 26% / 20% | 52% / 25% / 23% |
| 06 Nov, 20:00 | Vitória ×Fluminense | 34% / 29% / 38% | 33% / 30% / 37% | 34% / 28% / 38% |
Team strength
Different scales: Elo (1500 = average), Market (0 = average), Poisson (1.0 = average; attack = goals scored, defence = goals prevented).
| Team | Market | Elo | Poisson · Attack | Poisson · Defence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.09 | 1634 | 1.53 | 1.38 |
| Palmeiras | 0.70 | 1622 | 1.32 | 1.54 |
| Cruzeiro | 0.35 | 1550 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Vasco | 0.26 | 1464 | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Fluminense | 0.25 | 1536 | 1.10 | 1.13 |
| Bragantino | 0.16 | 1492 | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Bahia | 0.14 | 1520 | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| Corinthians | 0.14 | 1479 | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Santos | 0.09 | 1495 | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| Internacional | 0.07 | 1481 | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Athletico-PR | 0.06 | 1496 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| São Paulo | 0.06 | 1496 | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| Atlético-MG | -0.02 | 1512 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| Botafogo | -0.02 | 1511 | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Mirassol | -0.06 | 1491 | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| Grêmio | -0.27 | 1473 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Vitória | -0.28 | 1458 | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Coritiba | -0.41 | 1457 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Remo | -0.53 | 1432 | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Chapecoense | -0.81 | 1401 | 0.87 | 0.71 |