Who makes the Libertadores? Who goes down?

We simulate the remaining games 20,000 times. Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the team ended up there.

Model:

team strength learned from bookmakers' odds

Title

Flamengo, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro >99%

Remo, Chapecoense >99%

#	Team	Pts	P	GD	Proj. pts	Title	Top 6	Bottom 4
1	FlamengoFLA	73	33	+40	84	88%	>99%	–
2	PalmeirasPAL	70	33	+34	80	12%	>99%	–
3	CruzeiroCRU	57	33	+6	65	–	>99%	–
4	FluminenseFLU	54	33	+10	61	–	91%	–
5	Athletico-PRCAP	54	33	+10	61	–	91%	–
6	BahiaBAH	53	33	+6	60	–	80%	–
7	Atlético-MGCAM	50	33	+5	56	–	27%	–
8	SantosSAN	47	33	+2	54	–	8%	–
9	BragantinoRBB	44	33	+4	51	–	2%	<1%
10	São PauloSAO	43	33	0	50	–	1%	<1%
11	CoritibaCFC	42	33	-10	46	–	<1%	4%
12	BotafogoBOT	39	33	-8	46	–	–	8%
13	VascoVAS	38	32	-9	47	–	<1%	5%
14	VitóriaVIT	38	33	-13	44	–	–	26%
15	GrêmioGRE	37	33	-7	42	–	–	53%
16	MirassolMIR	37	33	-10	44	–	–	28%
17	CorinthiansCOR	36	33	-6	43	–	–	27%
18	InternacionalINT	35	33	-5	42	–	–	48%
19	RemoREM	29	33	-15	34	–	–	>99%
20	ChapecoenseCHA	21	32	-34	26	–	–	>99%

Libertadores (1st–6th) Relegation (17th–20th)